{"version":1,"checked_at":"2026-11-01T16:49:31.054Z","source":"codex-reset.com","source_url":"https://codex-reset.com/api/forecast","fallback":false,"stale":false,"verdict":{"code":"watch","label":"WATCH, NOT A PROMISE","answer":"Maybe — worth watching, not worth assuming.","summary":"The available signals are mixed and do not justify treating a reset as imminent.","action":"Continue only work that fits your remaining quota, or wait for your own scheduled window.","tone":"neutral"},"probabilities":{"h24":50,"h48":75},"confidence":{"level":"low","note":"Experimental: walk-forward backtest has not beaten both baselines yet."},"last_reset":{"id":"2115273253711409208","at":"2026-10-28T06:35:38.000Z","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2115273253711409208","summary":"Lands by midnight PST.","hours_ago":106,"days_ago":4,"source_label":"Operator observation"},"active_signal":null,"service":{"code":"operational","label":"Codex surfaces operational","degraded":false,"checkedAt":"2026-11-01T16:45:56.759Z","incident":null,"surfaces":[{"id":"web","label":"Codex Web","status":"operational"},{"id":"api","label":"Codex API","status":"operational"},{"id":"cli","label":"Codex CLI","status":"operational"},{"id":"vscode","label":"VS Code extension","status":"operational"},{"id":"desktop","label":"Codex in ChatGPT Desktop","status":"operational"}]},"evidence":[{"code":"recent_cadence","label":"Recent cadence","detail":"a reset every ~1.5d across the last 5 (weighted mean 4d)","href":"/timeline","kind":"forecast"},{"code":"last_reset","label":"Last reset","detail":"2026-10-28 (4.4d ago)","href":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2115273253711409208","kind":"forecast"},{"code":"common_window","label":"Most common window","detail":"9 PM - 12 AM in America/Los_Angeles","href":"/timeline","kind":"forecast"},{"code":"latest-confirmed","label":"Latest verified reset","detail":"Lands by midnight PST.","href":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2115273253711409208","kind":"confirmed"}],"rhythm":{"common_window":{"label":"9 PM - 12 AM","timezone":"America/Los_Angeles","startHour":21,"endHour":0},"cadence":{"recentMedianDays":1.5,"recentSample":5,"weightedMeanDays":4,"accelerating":true}},"model":{"mode":"model","details":{"version":"rate-v3","effectiveSampleSize":36.2,"baseDailyRate":0.529},"backtest":{"sampleSize":370,"brier":0.13,"baselineBrier":0.134,"betterThanNaive":true,"status":"experimental"}},"freshness":{"upstream_updated_at":"2026-11-01T16:48:48.981Z","age_seconds":42,"stale_after_seconds":2700,"status_stale":false},"caution":"A global goodwill reset is separate from your personal 5-hour or weekly reset. Your Codex /status or usage page is the source of truth for your account.","transport":{"forecast":"live","timeline":"live","status":"live","fetched_at":{"forecast":"2026-11-01T16:49:31.054Z","timeline":"2026-11-01T16:49:31.054Z","status":"2026-11-01T16:49:31.054Z"},"errors":[]},"release":"2026.08.07-p5.8"}